Demand for the PGMs from the auto sector rose final yr because the 2021-2022 chip disaster had run its course, however the tempo of BEVs penetration remained the principle problem for the PGMs demand, Metals Focus mentioned in its 104-page report.
BEVs at the moment account for 14% of auto manufacturing, up from 11% firstly of 2023, Metals Focus mentioned. This affect has been partly offset by a pickup in hybrid automobiles, which want PGMs. These now have a 22% share of sunshine responsibility automobiles, up from 18% at first of 2023.
The competitors between the metals contained in the group noticed a change in 2023 with the slowing substitution of palladium with platinum as the 2 approached value parity.
“Going ahead, we anticipate substitution will stall,” Metals Focus mentioned.
On the provision aspect, decrease palladium and rhodium costs have squeezed margins, with half of South African mines working uneconomically on an all-in sustaining price foundation, an business metric that displays whole bills, on the finish of 2023.
Many miners sought to scale back prices, and this course of will preserve provide constrained this yr inflicting one other yr of structural deficit, which in its flip goes to be lined by present above-ground shares.
“Buying and selling behaviours that dominated 2023 will proceed to play a big position in shaping costs in 2024,” Metals Focus mentioned.
In 2024, Metals Focus expects common costs for platinum to slip by 1% to $960 per troy ounce, for palladium to say no by 23% to $1,030, and for rhodium to fall 28% to $4,750.
PGMs market steadiness and value forecast by Metals Focus
2023 | 2024 | 23/22 | 24/23 | |
Provide | ||||
Mine manufacturing: | ||||
– Platinum | 5,604 | 5,468 | 2% | -2% |
– Palladium | 6,512 | 6,125 | 0% | -6% |
– Rhodium | 664 | 670 | -4% | 1% |
Whole provide: | ||||
– Platinum | 7,161 | 7,111 | -2% | -1% |
– Palladium | 9,137 | 8,881 | -3% | -3% |
– Rhodium | 953 | 983 | -5% | 3% |
Demand | ||||
Automative: | ||||
– Platinum | 3,211 | 3,269 | 16% | 2% |
– Palladium | 8,456 | 8,319 | 7% | -2% |
– Rhodium | 992 | 969 | 6% | -2% |
Whole demand: | ||||
– Platinum | 8,028 | 7,687 | 11% | -4% |
– Palladium | 10,146 | 10,011 | 5% | -1% |
– Rhodium | 1,058 | 1,161 | 8% | 10% |
Surplus/deficit | ||||
– Platinum | -867 | -576 | n/a | -33% |
– Palladium | -1,009 | -1,130 | 249% | 12% |
– Rhodium | -104 | -178 | n/a | 70% |
Common value | ||||
– Platinum | 965 | 960 | 0% | -1% |
– Palladium | 1,337 | 1,030 | -37% | -23% |
– Rhodium | 6,611 | 4,750 | -57% | -28% |
(By Polina Devitt; Enhancing by Nick Macfie)