The report highlights that nickel manganese cobalt (NMC) and lithium-iron phosphate (LFP) would be the dominant cathode chemistries. LFP and NMC chemistries collectively presently make up greater than 90% of lithium-ion battery gross sales for EVs.
“Rising applied sciences resembling solid-state and high-density sodium-ion are nonetheless within the prototype and pilot manufacturing phases, and their market share is anticipated to remain within the single-digit vary till 2030,” says Bain & Firm.
“Batteries are the one greatest price driver for OEMs they usually affect product efficiency. Nonetheless, ongoing flux throughout battery chemistries, particularly inside lithium-ion batteries, is affecting OEM product roadmaps,” mentioned Mahadevan Seetharaman, a Bengaluru-based companion at Bain & Firm’s Superior Manufacturing Companies apply.
“OEMs the world over face the vital selection of which battery sort to make use of and whether or not to develop batteries in-house or via collaboration with different corporations.”
Based on the worldwide consultancy, LFP will turn out to be extra dominant in China because of strong demand for mass-market EVs and established provide chains, along with the emergence of LFP variants with improved power density, resembling M3P and lithium manganese iron phosphate (LFMP).
Within the USA and EU, LFP will achieve share however will nonetheless be decrease than that in China for a number of causes, based on the report.
“First, home LFP manufacturing is sort of nonexistent, and present iron and phosphorous provide chains are considerably much less mature in these areas in comparison with these in China. Consequently, the fee benefit of LFP versus NMC shall be undercut by the prices of importing LFP from China,”
“As well as, many corporations are wanting into no- or low-cobalt NMC variants, which might additional scale back the fee benefit of LFP,” the report states.
Lastly, import tariffs and broader geopolitical challenges could make LFP much less suited to Western OEMs seeking to construct extra resilient provide chains.
Bain says solid-state and sodium-ion would be the solely commercialized rising applied sciences by 2030. The consultancy agency expects business availability of sodium-ion-based EVs by the primary half of 2025.